Daniel Theis? Who? Huh? I bet you have never heard of Daniel Theis until this playoffs (Boston has been on TV a lot) because of all the games he’s been playing in. The man’s in his third year as an NBA Player, yet (possibly) past his prime, or at least at age 28 he’s one year over the average prime age, but in my opinion, I think he still has more in store for us.
If you go look at his stats on basketball-reference you’ll think that 9 points and 6 and a half rebounds aren’t that impressive, right? But let’s dig deeper. First, we are going to start off with the basic stats, the advanced stats are going to be coming later.
Now the first notable thing he has is his field goal percentage, notching in at 55 percent. The league’s average is just 46 percent. But he’s a center. Center’s shoot much closer to the hoop. So that may not be that good. Right?
Now we’re going to take a dive in true shooting percentage. What’s true shooting percentage? It basically is a player’s field goal percentage but also adding in free throws. Now, I was trying to get a list of center’s effective field goal percentage, but that wasn’t on the list I am using, so I went with true shooting percentage instead.
There are fifty six “qualified” centers in the NBA on that list (it’s trustworthy, it’s a list John Hollinger made, and he made the PER stat, a remarkable invention). On the list of True Shooting Percentage Theis comes in as a tie for 18th with Jonas Valančiūnas at 63 percent. Not bad, huh? On effective field goal percentage, the NBA Average is 53 percent but Theis has a solid 60 percent.
So you may be asking; is his defense good? Definitely. The average NBA Player puts up 0.6 steals (definitely less for centers) and 0.4 blocks (probably a bit more for centers) and Theis posts an impressive 0.6 steals and 1.3 blocks. Pretty good.
Now here’s the Advanced Stats. We are going to compare players using PER (Player Efficiency Rating), WS (Win Shares), and USG% (Usage Percentage). We are also going to take some peeks at FG% (Field Goal Percentage), and eFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage). If you want to learn more about these stats refer to the basketball reference glossary. First we are just going to look at his advanced stats.
Win Shares: 6.5
League Average: 3.2
PER: 17.9
League Average: 15.0
USG%: 14.4
League Average: Below 10
So as you can see Theis’s advanced stats are quite good. Now we will compare him to his Boston Celtics Teammates.
First off comes All-Star Gordon Hayward, his basic stats are roughly 17.5/7/4 which all is better than Theis 9.2/6.6/1.7 (Points, Rebounds, Assists). Next we dive into advanced stats.
Theis WS: 6.5
Hayward WS: 5.7
Theis PER: 17.9
Hayward PER: 18.1
Theis USG: 14.4
Hayward USG: 21.1
Theis eFG: 60%
Hayward eFG: 56%
Here it is showing that Theis wins more games for the Celtics, while being as efficient as Hayward, and shooting better than Hayward. The reason I use eFG% here is because it gives a chance for guards to have better FG% than centers. It values threes more than twos because threes give three points and twos give two. Makes sense, right? So you may complain Hayward’s eFG is lower because he is forced into tougher shots being a smaller position. Your answer: no. His eFG could be as high as Theis due to the three ball. Another thing is while Theis played 12 more games this season, he played 10 less minutes on average, thus giving Hayward 200 more minutes than Theis this regular season. Why is this important? Well…
To sum it up, Theis has played less minutes than Hayward this season, and is used less (refer to the USG%) but wins the team more games and shoots more effectively. He also is very efficient, their efficiency rating is barely different. Wow. This is absurd.
Next up is 2018-19 All NBA, 4 time All-Star Kemba Walker. His basic stats are much better than Theis, putting up an impressive 20/4/5. Heck better than Theis in two categories. Yet again, the advanced stats say different…
Theis WS: 6.5
Walker WS: 5.9
Theis PER: 17.9
Walker PER: 20.0
Theis USG: 14.4
Walker USG: 27.2
Theis eFG: 60%
Walker eFG: 53%
Key notes coming into this: Walker played 10 less games than Theis but like Hayward racked up 200 more minutes averaging 7 more a game. Now, with that in hand, we can look and compare the stats. Theis wins his team a bit more games. Walker is more efficient (technically). Theis shoots better, and Walker is used a LOT LOT MORE.
How can this be? Stumps me too. Just to confirm Theis’s goodness, we are going to compare him to Jaylen Brown then finally Jayson Tatum.
As you have heard, the 2016-17 All Rookie Jaylen Brown is up next. He is averaged 20/6/2, which is no doubt better than Theis. Or is it?
Theis WS: 6.5
Brown WS: 4.9
Theis PER: 17.9
Brown PER: 16.9
Theis USG: 14.4
Brown USG: 24.7
Theis eFG: 60%
Brown eFG: 55%
Key notes coming into this: Brown played 7 less games but played a total of 400 more minutes. Brown averaged 10 more than Theis a game. Now that that’s cleared up, it’s comparison time. Theis wins his team 1.6 more games, a notable difference when you think about that the player average is 3.1/3.2. Theis is more efficient than Brown in eFG and PER. And yet again, Theis is used a LOT less than Brown. How can a guy averaging 9 points better better than a guy averaging 20? That’s a question that makes me laugh, but it looks like Theis is the guy to do it.
Last but not least, 2017-18 All Rookie, 2020 All Star, and 2020 All NBA Jayson Tatum is on the clock. He averaged 23/7/3. It looks like he has better stats than the other three guys we have compared Theis’s incredible underdog statistics to. Will Theis finally be dethroned?
Theis WS: 6.5
Tatum WS: 6.9
Theis PER: 17.9
Tatum PER: 20.4
Theis USG: 14.4
Tatum USG: 28.6
Theis eFG: 60%
Tatum eFG: 53%
Key notes coming into this: They both played the same amount of games, yet Tatum played 699 more minutes in the season. Another notable mention is that Tatum plays Power Forward the second biggest position next to Theis’s Center Position, and they both are listed at 6-8. Now knowing this, we can compare yet again. Tatum has won his team more games, but by a slim amount. Tatum is more efficient on the PER side, while Theis is a more efficient shooter (yet they are the same height 🤔). Tatum is used a lot more on the minutes side and his USG is nearly DOUBLE that of Theis.
Though here it does look like Tatum may have the upper hand, it would be interesting to see what Theis could do if he built up his stamina to play more minutes. I don’t think it is Brad Stevens (Boston Head Coach) fault that Theis is playing less minutes, just he really should do some stamina work on him, because if he does Theis could definitely develop into an All Star Caliber player. This also shows Theis is a very good player and should never be underestimated and undervalued; you should always have your eye out for the man and every team should be looking to find him. Thank you for reading and have a great day! Please come back next time if you enjoyed!
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